Here is a link to the complete article. As the blog title suggests, Scoob and his colleagues (including Cranky) evaluated crime trends in cities that housed evacuees from Hurricane Katrina (Houston, Phoenix, and San Antonio). They describe the 'disaster myths' common in events like Katrina - the public perception that tragic events like these breed crime. Similarly, this work comports with the racial threat hypothesis and attribution theories- the concern that outsiders, particularly people of color will threaten the status quo and will be less trustworthy and more prone to criminal behavior.
The article is very well written, so I will just share some excerpts. Overall, the authors find few links between the presence of evacuees and an increase in crime.
"But if there was any effect, it was a modest one," Varano says, after his group weighed police crime data from the three cities to look for trends for each crime from 2004 to 2006. The study found a slight rise in murder and robbery in Houston, when adjusted for the long-term crime patterns, but no increase in other crimes (and suggested drops in rape and aggravated assaults); no effect at all in San Antonio; and another slight statistical rise in the murder rate in Phoenix. "Any increase in murder is intolerable," Varano says, but a lack of increase in crimes such as car theft and robbery, where economic motives most clearly would tempt so many displaced people, argues against a crime wave driven by evacuees, he says.
What is most interesting are the comments to the article. Here is one example.
I am 32 years old and have lived in Houston all my life. Take it from me, this article is nothing but 100% BS! Petty crimes such as robbery and thefts have definitely skyrocketed since the influx. The bad economy isn't helping crime rates either. I was a victim of robbery in 2008 and I constantly see it happening again and again more than usual. The higher end suburbs seem to be the taking the worst of the brunt right now. Shootings/robberies at the Sugar Land and Woodlands malls last month. Hell even the mayor of Sugar Land was robbed at his own house! These two suburbs have been fairly safe areas in the past but things have been changing a lot over recent years. You can never escape crime anywhere you go but sometimes I feel things are starting to get so unsafe around here that I'm ready to pack up my crap and get out of dodge!
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I guess my identity is officially blown on this topic. Can I pretend to be one of the two senior authors on this?
The response has been incredible and a bit intimidating to say the least. I would like to go back to the days (I think?) when everyone simply ignored my research. That feels more natural. If you think some of the comments are bad, you should see the DIRECT emails. I haven't been called an idiot this much since I saw all my friends (and GBOC bloggers) at ASC in the fall. The funniest thing is that according to the comments in the various places that have picked up on this article, I am an "Obama loving east coast liberal working in an Ivory Tower." Boy, the nailed that one right on the head.
Thanks Dr. H, I think....
What this experience does show is the power of the press, including the power to make subtle choices that spin stories in the eyes of viewers. Though the main effects were homicide and robbery, the headlines of the articles reporting on the study imply that we were dismissive of the aftermath of those incidents. I think we are far from cavalier about any increase in homicide or violent crime. In effect, the media take on the article (no effect) is being shoved into our mouths and I think that's a lot of the pushback we're seeing. That and the usual research caveats that are lost in any lay reporting of a research study.
Needless to say, Scooby continues his trend of making friends and influencing enemies in an entire new arena. He's done a great job leading the charge on this and unfortunately is taking all the flak since he's the only one names in the reports.
I have long ago learned that reader comments on web-based crime/justice news stories are good examples of the most debased, ignorant, and hateful of human tendencies. I ignore them with as much force as I can muster. Still, I'm shocked by how quickly the reader dialogue devolves into, essentially, "they're liberal Obama lackeys who have no intellectual integrity". The rare reader who points out that the study was peer-reviewed is often pigeonholed right along with Scoob & Cranks. If it wasn't so disturbing, it would be humorous.
P.S. I almost forgot: congrats on the pub!
P.P.S. Welcome to the Loony Left! : )
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